Tensions in northern Syria have escalated following Recep Tayyip Erdogan's threats two days ago over an imminent military operation against Syrian Kurdish forces, whom he blamed for attacking Turkish police forces on Syrian soil. Turkey has carried out a number of attacks on senior Syrian Kurdish cadres using military drones in recent months.

The prestigious Stratfor Institute, which studies and predicts political and military conflicts and tensions in the world, does not consider Ankara's new military operation against the Syrian Kurds to be in Ankara's interest. The institute believes that Turkish military operations against the Syrian Kurds, which are likely to take place in the Tal Rifat area, may, intentionally or unintentionally, target Russian and Syrian forces who have come to the area at the invitation of the Kurds and this could put Turkey against Moscow and Damascus.

The think tank predicts that a possible Turkish military strike on the Syrian Kurds, to be the country's third military offensive against the Syrian Kurds since 2018, could bring the Syrian Kurds closer to the Syrian central government, with which it has not had a serious conflict. The think tank has suggested that in the event of a war, Syrian Kurdish officials will ask Syrian government forces to be stationed in the Tal Rifat area.

Stratfor predicts that a possible new Turkish military operation against the Syrian Kurds would also have a negative impact on Ankara relations with Washington, given that there is more alignment in the US Congress with Kurdish forces and more anti-Turkish sentiment and that may lead to further US sanctions on Turkey.

Stratfor also forecasts that a new Turkey attack on the Syrian Kurds, the current US ally in the fight against ISIS, will increase tensions between Washington and Ankara.

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