Analyst says military operations cannot solve Turkey’s Kurdish question

A political analyst and researcher believes the main reason behind Turkey operations in the Iraqi Kurdistan is the presence of Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) fighters in the region of the Qandil Mountains but also stresses that Turkey has so far failed to address its domestic Kurdish question and that for this reason, military operations alone cannot hope to eliminate the PKK and resolve the matter inside of Turkey.

Erwin van Veen, a senior research fellow and leading Middle East research program at the Clingendael Conflict Research Unit told Kurdpress in an interview that the main reason behind Turkey military operations in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and its construction of military bases across the region, is the presence of the PKK fighters.

Regarding Turkish army attacks on Qandil, Shingal, Makhmor, and even Sulaimani, the analyst stated: "Turkey has pursued an assertive foreign and security policy against the PKK and its affiliates across the region since 2015/2016 when its negotiations with the group failed, the YPG gained prominence in Syria and the HDP gained a larger share of the vote in Turkey itself. The current thinking in Ankara seems to be that Kurdish militant organizations that are ‘against it’ can be militarily defeated without bothering with a political solution to the ‘Kurdish issue’ at home. There have been several Turkish incursions into Syria that manifest this thinking while Turkish incursions into northern Iraq depart from the same premise.

He stated that Turkey has upgraded the nature of its military actions and "has shifted from cross-border incursions into northern Iraq to the establishment of dozens of permanent bases on Iraqi territory as the main method of sustaining its attacks on the PKK. In addition, it is also enlarging its area of engagement beyond the Qandil mountain range to include Sinjar, Makhmour and Suli. In part this is a function of prior extension of the PKK (e.g. in Sinjar where it supported the Yezidi against IS but never left afterwards) and in part a function of its own actions against the PKK that are forcing the organization to disperse southwards, deeper into the Kurdish Region of Iraq."

"As the KDP controls the Duhok and Erbil provinces of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in an increasingly authoritarian manner, it is inconceivable that Turkish forces operate in these areas without at least passive permission of the KDP. The KDP also provides some intelligence, logistical and rearguard support in the form of bases and checkpoints that monitor and limit PKK movement. Active support of Turkish forces by KDP Peshmerga against the PKK is, however, rare. This is mostly due the fact that there seems to be no support for another intra-Kurdish conflict in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and because the popularity of the KDP’s leadership is also low at the moment. In brief, there is no popular support for a more active KDP stance against the PKK, or with Turkey," he told Kurdpress about speculations that Turkey is unable to attack the PKK without KDP support for Turkey.

Answering the question whether the recent clashes between the KRG forces and young people on the Semalka border has anything to do with KDP/ PKK tensions, Mr. van Veen said: "It is difficult to say, to be honest, because popular discontent with the KDP inside of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and disapproval of the KDP’s latent support for Turkey against the PKK are starting to interact against the backdrop of a deteriorating economy. Salaries of e.g. teachers and civil servants remain unpaid even though party elites continue to enrich themselves and repress protests. It will become even harder to separate these issues if and when the PKK is viewed more and more as a Kurdish entity under Turkish pressure that is roughing it out in the mountains, carrying the torch of Kurdish aspirations, as opposed to a KDP that is perceived as more self-interested.

"In theory it is possible to crush a rebel / guerilla movement with overwhelming military force if such force is applied without regard for human rights/life. Consider the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka. Yet, in the case of the PKK this is unlikely to be possible due to the fact that the PKK is currently mostly based in another country (Iraq) where it is not perceived as an existential threat and so there is less desire on the part of Erbil, Suli or Baghdad to take action against it," he said about the possibility of Turkey eliminating the PKK by militarily means.

In this regard, the analyst also stated that"the Qandil mountains are extremely difficult terrain to operate in from a military point of view. Air and drone strikes limit PKK movement and cause casualties but only ground operations can really undo PKK territorial presence. Yet such operations pose a high risk to Turkey since they would take time and be expensive in blood and treasure. Finally, as long as Turkey continues to repress its own Kurdish population and their political representatives – consider the case against the HDP – it risks pushing new recruits towards the PKK as it combats the group’s existing fighters. Even so, Ankara’s interventions have put the PKK on the defensive."

Commenting on the opposing ideas that the PKK can either be viewed as an asset for the Kurdistan Region of Iraq against Turkish threats or as a burden on the region, Mr. van Veen stated: "The concern, I think, is less with what might be and more with what is. The fact is that the PKK is ensconced in the Qandil mountains and it is not about to leave. It has nowhere to go. Yet it is also true that it has expanded its presence into Sinjar and other areas, as well as in Syria, over the past few years which is a cause of concern for Turkey, the KDP and others. This triggers a response that might be more intense and violent than it otherwise could have been. The bottom line, in my opinion, is that as long as Turkey cannot reconceive of itself as a multi-ethnic country in which substantial minorities have a right to meaningful political representation and benefit from collective rights, the Kurdish problem will persist and defeating the PKK will merely result in the rise of a PKK 2.0.

This is not to say that all problems will be resolved by an about-face in Ankara, but taking such steps would undermine the PKK more than any military operation in the Qandil mountains. Meanwhile, it is understandable that Turkey wants to protect itself from PKK attacks just as it is understandable that groups like the PKK mobilize against Turkish repression, or that the KDP and Baghdad (will) insist on Iraq’s territorial integrity."

Reporter's code: 50101

News Code 2072

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